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• Three eastern German states hold elections in September
• Far-right AfD set to make historic gains in three states
• ���Ǻ��� activists say violence is already on the rise

BERLIN – Activists warn the expected success of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in September elections in three eastern German states could put ���Ǻ��� rights at risk across the country.

Polls suggest the AfD could come first in the states of Thuringia and Saxony on Sept. 1, and in Brandenburg on Sept. 22, with between . 

It would be the first time a far-right party has been the largest in a German parliament since World War Two. 

Germany's state governments and parliaments have jurisdiction over matters like the police, courts, education and culture, and state elections also determine the composition of the Bundesrat federal upper house of parliament.

Here's what you need to know.

Where does AfD stand on ���Ǻ��� rights?

Despite having an openly lesbian co-leader, Alice Weidel, the AfD has become the loudest voice against ���Ǻ��� rights in the federal German parliament.

In 2019, it filed a motion to revoke same-sex marriage and in a manifesto ahead of the Thuringia election, it said: "Our political family ideal is that of the family of a mother, a father and children". 

The manifesto also said the AfD rejected "gender ideology", pledged to ban "third parties" from delivering sex education lessons in schools and stated that "politically motivated programmes have no place in schools".

The AfD unsuccessfully sought to challenge a law that passed the German federal parliament in April making it easier for trans people to .

"The trans pop culture of a minority is being promoted while parents ask themselves how to protect children from it in kindergartens and schools," Weidel said last year in an interview with public broadcaster ARD.

Do other parties oppose ���Ǻ��� rights?

While the AfD will likely struggle to form coalitions or minority governments in the three states, it could get enough support to block ���Ǻ��� rights measures, or push initiatives targeting them.

The conservative CDU is polling either first or second in all three states, while the populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) is expected to of the vote with its conservative social policy and leftist economics.

Most CDU members of parliament have opposed many ���Ǻ��� rights laws, from the legalisation of same-sex marriage in 2017, to the gender self-determination law, and ending a ban on gay and bisexual men donating blood.

The CDU, often with the support of the AfD, also introduced bans on the use of gender-neutral language in official communications in education and public administration in five German states it controls, from Saxony to Bavaria, but failed to pass a similar ban in Thuringia.

Meanwhile, BSW leader Sahra Wagenknecht has become one of the of the trans self-identification law. She called it dangerous and said it "turns parents and children into guinea pigs for an ideology that only benefits the pharmaceutical lobby."

Why are ���Ǻ��� activists concerned? 

Activists say the rise of the far-right could endanger the public funding that many ���Ǻ��� charities rely on. They are also concerned about growing anti-���Ǻ��� violence, both online and offline.

Since late July, hundreds of far-right protesters have tried to disrupt Pride marches in the eastern cities of Leipzig and Bautzen, where they chanted racist and neo-Nazi slogans with at least one protester seen performing the Hitler salute. 

"Now we find ourselves having to figure out how to keep the participants of our Pride marches safe. Years ago, that topic wasn't even on the table," said Theresa Ertel, coordinator of the Pride march in Jena, a city of 111,000 in Thuringia.

The Pride bike march in Potsdam, the largest city in Brandenburg, witnessed its first physical aggression last year, according to Sebastian Adamski, a march co-organiser who added that some people are now scared to join ���Ǻ��� marches.

Criminal offences based on the victim's sexual orientation surged by 49% in Germany in 2023 compared to the previous year, while rose by almost 105%, according to the Interior Ministry's latest available data.

"It's becoming more dangerous to be visibly queer and to do activism," Ertel said.

Could the rest of the country be affected?

Polls suggest the three state elections could lend further legitimacy to the AfD and the BSW, and that could affect national politics, even though voting patterns remain very different in the east and west of Germany more than 30 years after reunification. 

While both parties are unlikely to see similar levels of support in next year's federal election, a shift to the right could endanger some of the governing coalition's federal ���Ǻ��� pledges, such as giving lesbian couples .

"If they don't get it done in the next year, the chances that it happens will be very low," said Julia Sergon, a spokeswoman for Rainbow Potsdam.

(Reporting by Enrique Anarte; Editing by Jon Hemming.)